iPhone and the Mac’s Slow Slog Towards iDeath
Wishing to learn more about his chosen business, Hiroshi Yamauchi braved the perils of intercontinental travel to visit the home of the world’s largest manufacturer of easily randomized two-dimensional representative cardboard. Perhaps expecting a huge manufacturing facility, Mr. Yamauchi was disappointed to discover that America’s largest manufacturer of playing cards occupied a single office, and a small one at that. It didn’t take long for Mr. Yamauchi to realize that even if his company came to dominate the playing card market, they wouldn’t exactly be major industrialists. Which explains why Nintendo gave up making playing cards, but can also tell us something about the future of Apple.
Apple, everyone will recall, changed names from the informative but increasingly inaccurate “Apple Computer” to the accurate but completely unrevealing “Apple.” The quick reaction was, “Omigod, Apple is giving up on computers.” A notion that was immediately countered by Apple Exec Phil Schiller who said, “We sell Macintoshes and will continue to do so and are very happy with that business.” Thank goodness for that.
Or maybe not, as the Mac hasn’t always been a cash machine for Apple. A lot of folks remember the mid-nineties when Apple was burning through cash like a dot com era online pet store. Judging by Mr. Schiller’s statement, should Vista or Linux suddenly start a Windows 95 style beat down on OS X, the faithful will suddenly undergo a quick transformation from an active OS X user to a person who remembered when Apple made home computers.
How likely is that scenario? Vista is finally here and people are running OS X on generic PCs with the help of virtualization products, so it is easy to imagine that the days of the Mac are short indeed. While that conclusion is seemingly logical, it is also erroneous. The surprise with the switch to Intel wasn’t that people didn’t want to run OS X on generic hardware, but how badly people wanted run Windows on Mac hardware. Keeping the lessons of the last year in mind, it is obvious that people want the Mac experience, they want supposedly overpriced laptops, they want the aura of cool that surrounds Mac users, they want the image of being someone with enough disposable income that they can afford a Mac, and they want the whole Mac package, but they want it with a side of Windows.
The Mac is safe from the effects of the “cheapest possible computer” syndrome. What the Mac isn’t safe from is Apple and the biggest threat to the platform since Sun was poised to buy the entire company: the iPhone. Apple’s goal for the iPhone is a seemingly underwhelming 1% of the cell phone market. That unimpressive number becomes a very tough target to hit when it is recast in terms of smartphones only. The truth is that Apple isn’t competing in the smartphone or the regular cell phone market. Apple is competing in the “phone so cool it will get you laid” market, and while the iPhone may be pricey, it is a ton cheaper than a Ferrari.
In short, the iPhone will do very well, and the better the iPhone does, the worse the news is for the Mac. If Apple hits its sales targets for the iPhone, the profit derived from the Mac segment will be roughly equal to the iPhone segment. If Apple can keep the hype machine running (and if there is one thing Steve Jobs has mastered it is how to push the buttons on the hype machine) for two years the sales could be phenomenal when the iPhone is no longer exclusive to Cingular.*
If the iPhone is a smash hit, a self-perpetuating cycle will be set up. As the profits from the iPhone increase, Apple’s attention will become more squarely focused on the iPhone and the cellular market. The more talented engineers will move to the iPhone and the talents that make the Mac what is will be busy making the iPhone even better. Apple isn’t a company like Honda that
makes a large variety of tenuously connected devices, Apple is a company that believes success comes by maintaining a narrow focus on only the most important aspects of the business. Success of the iPhone could easily change what the company sees as the integral parts of Apple.
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Chris, I wonder if it might be more accurate to suggest that MS, and possibly Apple, aren’t trying to kill of the PC, but rather trying to move the more common mundane functions of the computer to a device as opposed to a computer. The PC would still exist but be dedicated to more complex software, like graphics, movies, accounting, word processing, etc.
I see your point Beeb but the crucial difference is that there will always be PCs, always. The PC might become marginalized and unimportant, some other device might replace the PC for the vast majority of people but there will still be people who use a PC. The Mac won’t share the same fate, once it become unprofitable for Apple they will kill it. Why not license it? Well, why not license the Newton?
On the other hand, there are obviously outdated devices that people just won’t let go of. Fax machines for one. Are PCs in the same category? To me they are, but I’m a little slow and all.
I see your point, Chris, that the marginalization of the PC would mean the end of the Mac. One certainly couldn’t rule it out. While it’s difficult to imagine a popular platform completely disappearing, those of us in the editing world remember the Amiga all too well.
Chris - I have to respectfully disagree with your overall summation of iPhone and Mac future market potentials.
And, for the most part, I agree with all the highly-intelligent and well-articulated comments on your article (that’s an indirect kudo to applematters.com for attracting such a great and involved readership and I include myself in that demographic).
OK - my 2 cents worth - to add to the comments made about the ‘digital hub’ concept that Apple has been steadily and successfully building-out alongside OS X - the iPhone IS a new UI, an entirely new user experience: a robust, scalable, mobile OS X THIN CLIENT (for the sake of brevity let’s dub it XTC).
XTC is the key that unlocks a dynamic new future for OS X, Mac and all of Apple’s inter-related products. It’s the next logical extension to their ‘digital hub’ model and it’s a helluva quatum leap.
As XTC matures (2 yrs = v3) we’ll see more and more Apple AND 3rd party apps running as thin XTC clients accessing powerful and distribulted OSX Server apps AND apps running locally on your Mac or PC (doable using current avail tech). I include 3rd parties in this statement as they’ve always been invaluable and integral to Apple product and solution development. Apple Developers’ input is inevitable and fundamental to XTC’s market success and will appear once Apple sorts out sensitive security and malware/cracker issues on mobile networks, etc. It’s just a matter of time.
It’s not hard to imagine logging into your LAN Mac/PC/Server/SAN from XTC iPhone/iPod/iUltraportable and remotely working on local apps like Office, FileMaker, iLife, iWork and saving/moving/forwarding/backing-up these files in real-time, even streaming your iTunes media content directly over IP to XTC. And XTC is leveraging the processing/routing/streaming power of the LAN at every step - Server/Mac/PC/SAN! I could go on but you get the idea.
In short, iPhone is an entirely-disruptive, preemptive r/evolution to the mobile/ultraportable marketplace. MultiTouch UI aside (which is the unique and intuitive user experience which drives this whole equation) XTC is the potent, mobile, thin client portal to universally-distributed and infinitely-diverse, web-based services.
Factor in GPS, WiMax, 3G, .Mac, Skype, VOIP, iChat AV, YouTube, Google and on and on, and you’ve got a kick-ass killer called ‘anyapp/anyservice/anywhere/anytime/andhow’!
XTC finally and fully realizes the rising Sun IP prophecy: THE NETWORK IS THE COMPUTER! And the ‘internetwork’ just got a major Apple upgrade!
It’s not hard to imagine logging into your LAN Mac/PC/Server/SAN from XTC iPhone/iPod/iUltraportable and remotely working on local apps like Office, FileMaker, iLife, iWork and saving/moving/forwarding/backing-up these files in real-time
While rudementary tasks could certainly be performed via the iPhone, I shudder to think of working on iMovie projects that way. What possible use would that be? Or even Office for that matter. The touchscreen is neat, but it isn’t exactly attached directly to your brain (yet). There are tasks suited for touching a screen with one or two fingers and others that are not.
And Apple has already but the kibosh on third-party apps for the iPhone for the foreseeable future, so whatever features get added to the iPhone will have to go through a vetting process by Apple before going onto the iPhone.
The PC will never go away. Its continued survival is ensured by
a.) the size of your hands,
b.) your visual acuity,
c.) the breadth of focus that your brain is capable of.
A keyboard in your living room with your flat panel as your display might surmount obstacles a. and b.
As for c., tell me if you can do meaningful work without the notes, books and other documents, scratch paper, pens, phone, and plain old desk space that your current workspace provides right now. If you can store AND organize all the nuggets of information embodied in all this clutter in your brain then by all means do your computing on something other than your PC. If you don’t have that kind of mental capacity, then either you are unmarried or have a very, very, very understanding wife.
Beeblebrox, how can you possibly say that iMovie projects would be harder on a Multitouch screen? The move toward direct manipulation of data has taken a *huge* step with Multitouch, completely obsolescing previous (single-point) touchscreen systems. I can’t wait to be able to move clips around in iMove with my hands, or *physically* lay out a new page design. How much more intuitive (and useful to a wider audience) would Aperture’s (or is it Lightroom’s?) light table feature be if you could manipulate it like a real light table, *in addition to* the benefits of having digital images? Let alone the opportunities for interaction that we haven’t conceived of yet ...
The way I see it: 1) iPhone runs OS X, essentially making it a (admittedly closed) Mac nano 2) iPhone is just the beginning. Not the beginning of a new line of iPhones, but the beginning of a new way of interacting with computers for the average person - as if they were tools (unthinkingly). The point of the iPhone (and the Mac) is to remove the thinking involved with computers (How do I save a new contact?) so that people can just get on with their lives. Just like the iPod took off by letting people worry about their music and not their MP3 player.
I agree with many here. There are way too many tasks that are suited to a PC that mobile devices just can’t accomplish without great compromise in ease of use.
While I do not disagree that the PC may morph into another form that may include touchscreen interface, etc, I think the Mac will be here in whatever form that takes.
For example, how many people would have thought they could manage and edit the thousands of digital photos they now have? And kids are still going to need to sit down and type a term paper.
I do not doubt that these tasks will be done in a way that is new, but I do doubt that the majority of people will want to perform them on a mobile device.
I should clarify my previous statements a wee bit:
I agree that the Mac is not going away anytime soon given the iPhone. On the contrary the iPhone MultiTouch/OS X thin client experience makes Mac OS X all the more central to a Mac user’s experience and OS functionality.
Yes - you’re right - we’ll continue to use our Macs for intensive, finely-detailed tasks. But I DO think that Mac OS X WILL steadily absorb and incorporate the winning elements of iPhone OS X thin client.
MultiTouch, for example = simpler more intuitive app UIs that takes full advantage of touch screen interface, instant voice/video-based IP messaging and much easier, more direct way to get tasks completed by leveraging the exponentially-growing power of the CPU, the internetwork and its distributed and diversified resources.
So - let’s imagine a possible scenario - you’re leaving on a vacation with your family. You don’t want to bring your desktop Mac with you but do want to have 24/7 access to your Mac while you’re away. So what do you do?
You take along your iPhone, or your iWhatever - a portable device that runs OS X thin client with a MultiTouch screen and UI.
You bring along the files you think you might need, storing them locally on your iMobile device.
I’m not saying the original iPhone v1 will be able to do the types of tasks I’m going to describe, but by v3 or so it will! As on-board CPU, memory, file storage, battery power management, network access, etc. scale-up so will iPhone’s functionality expand in kind.
Plan to see more and more of Mac OS X’s apps and functionality turning up in one form or another in iPhone and, vice versa, more and more of iPhone’s UI turning up in Mac OS X. They will form an integrated and expanding Client/Server/Client relationship that will join them at the hip by enhancing each OS’s ability to access the other OS’ powerful features and advantages.
So - back to our vacation - you are checking your email, your voice/video messages and viewing attached files, etc. and, Murphy’s Law, a fire starts that you hadn’t planned for during your vacation. You have to act - now, fast and smartly - to put the fire out so you enjoy your vacation with your family and still have a job to come back to!
Out comes your iPhone. You video iChat with three of your co-workers and determine what to do, delegate the actions and schedule another iChat the next day to follow-up and confirm conflict resolution. Next, you upload the files your co-workers will need to your secure .Mac work folder and email them the access info.
You need to edit some of those files before uploading them so you remotely boot and access your work-based Mac’s OS X screen, open the files, make changes, save them and directly FTP them from your work Mac to your .mac work folder and let your co-workers know they’re available.
Whew - now you’re free to return to your vacation with your family. The next day you log-in to the scheduled video iChat with your co-workers. They got the files, used them for the actions required, and the fire’s put out - quickly, professionally and with precise expertise.
OK, OK, I may be way off in my estimation of what’s actually possible using the iPhone, iPod, iUltraportable, iWhatever over the next few years. But this is where Apple and this new UI is headed. It will be directly and powerfully linked to the home-, work-based, wired Macs running Mac OS X via services running on OS X Server and other web-based services.
Apple mobile devices will exploit and leverage these web-based services, processes and applications like never before! They will feed off each other for innovation and functionality! iPhone will drive back-end services development and back-end services will drive iPhone app development.
And Mac OS X, the thick client in the middle of this thin client/server interplay will also benefit. It’s a synergistic, win-win-win all around and the ultimate winner is the consumer who gets easier to use, more and more powerful and smarter and smarter functionality from their Apple universe = iPhone, Mac OS X, Mac OS X Server, Mobile Carrier Network and 3rd party network servies, etc.
iPhone and its progeny WILL strengthen Mac OS X and Mac OS X Server and all subsequent products and services that develop due to iPhone’s success.
Beeblebrox, how can you possibly say that iMovie projects would be harder on a Multitouch screen?
Easy. Because it would. A touch screen is good for some things, but not everything. Even in iMovie, some tasks might benefit from dragging your pointy finger across glass, but far too many commands require more precision or manual input. Even the mouse is not suited for everything and we resort to keyboard commands.
Not to mention, btw, the virtual uselessness of a 3-inch screen to manipulate high-definition video.
Dattaa, I appreciate what you’re saying, and to a large extent, people are already doing what you’re describing and would probably welcome a device that makes it easier to do, uses wi-fi, has video conferencing (which the iPhone does not yet have), etc.
Essentially, what you’re suggesting is a laptop, but smaller. Maybe it could happen. I think the point of disagreement is just how much one could accomplish with the kind of apps that would be found on an iPhone. A lot, but not everything.
A touch screen is good for some things, but not everything. Even in iMovie, some tasks might benefit from dragging your pointy finger across glass, but far too many commands require more precision or manual input. Even the mouse is not suited for everything and we resort to keyboard commands.
Not to mention, btw, the virtual uselessness of a 3-inch screen to manipulate high-definition video.
Still, as the man says, an iPhone for Mail, an iUltraportable for iMovie.
You mean an ultraportable like this?
Yes, that’s exactly what I mean.
It makes me wonder then if there is a market for such a middle-ground device. I thought the Origami was pretty neat, but I’m not sure how they’re selling.
In any case, you would need to add a couple of features, like a built-in webcam (if it doesn’t have one) and a touchscreen, to bring it up to the level of what we’re talking about. Otherwise, it’s pretty close.
I still wouldn’t do video editing on it, though.